Let’s make a new resolution to break bad habits. I know that this is one of the toughest things to do. So, first your mind needs to see how most strategies fail.
This is the power in visual Monte Carlo situations. The trials you visually see over and over again start to sink into your subconscious of what makes a successful gambler. This is the only way to break from a vicious circle of going totally broke every six months or so.
Most of the time, the trouble lies in the betting pattern (AKA gambling habit). When a Monte Carlo is run 100,000 times, the simulation will clearly show what mistakes you are making.
The trials will also show repeatedly how over betting leads to ruin. The beauty in the Monte Carlo simulations is they give you “The Long Run” perspective. To avoid over-betting and eventual bankroll ruin, I strongly recommend my “Star” betting system.
Using a small sample size is inadequate and is subject to randomness. So, don’t be fooled by a few weeks or even months of betting history. Plus, your strategy clearly needs to have an edge.
If you think the spread is correct, then you should pass. The edge in sports betting is clearly getting the sharp line. For example, -2.5 instead of -3 or -3.5 (by shopping around). Can you make a winner? There may have been an edge at -3 or more and is a bad bet. If nothing else you will surely get eaten up by the juice ($11 or $10 “Vig” you must lay on every flat bet.
So, let’s make few commitments:
- Bet MORE when your bankroll goes up and LESS when it goes down.
- Shop for the very best line to suit your particular bet.
- Don’t bet a game just because it’s your favorite team.
- Now matter how tempting, NEVER let a “whim” influence your judgement. “Whimmers are not Winners!”
Remember: “Making a commitment is often easier than sticking to it”. ~All the best!